作者: jian11 时间: 17-3-2017 08:38
N.Korea suspends nuclear and missile test, The U.S. and S.Korea suspends the military drill., suggested by china.
THis is a nonstarter suggestion, which based on the ignorance of the motivation and purposes of both sides.
1. The escalation of nuclear and missile crisis on Korean peninsula confirms the prudence of the US and ROK alliance including Thaad deployment, Decapitation military drill and a preemptive strike to N.Korea, if necessary. Preemptive strike to N.korea seems especially critical to S. Korea, since Seoul is located only about 35 miles from DMZ which with the right range of N.korea's artillery and missile.
2. Yesterday, Secretary Tillerson expressed that 20 years' US N.korea policy failed which including $1.3b finiancial assistance to N.korea, of which the implicit and explicit quid pro quo is for North's moratorium of nuclear and missile tests. Tillerson expressed a clear need for a "new approach" towards N.Korea, although he stopped short of detailing what steps the Trump admisistration would pursue. N.Korea recently expressed that N.Korea is not interested in any talks and negotiations concerning the suspension of its nuclear program regardless any incentives provided by the US.
N.Korea's determination to develop it nuclear program is clear and simple. Its ultimate objective is that its nuclear state status be recognized by the US and international community and thus gains a nuclear leverage for its regime survival and economic development. Maomo Khaddafi of Lybia and Saddam Husein of Iraq already gave Kim Dynasty a lesson and warning. I think, Kim Jong-un is not so naive that he will heed to china's suggestion to suspend its nuclear program.
Based on above two points, which side will take and heed to china's proposition? That's why The US rejected china's suggestion immediately and publicly.
What do you think?
Do you agree?作者: jian11 时间: 17-3-2017 09:26
Perhaps we need RAND again to predict if the war on the korea penninsula will happen or not.
It is said that RAND rocketed to fame because of its successful prediction that China will intervene the korea war in early 1950's. 作者: jian11 时间: 17-3-2017 10:47
It is inevitable that N.Korea will become a nuclear state.